Are We Going to War with Pakistan?

Benazir Bhutto's assassination last week had the distinct feel of Ahmad Massoud's assassination in 2001. You'll remember how Massoud, the guerilla leader in Afghanistan who opposed the Taliban, was killed two days before 9/11. Within months we went to war in Afghanistan where we remain today.

George W. Bush has been itching to go to war with Iran until U.S. intelligence estimates exposed his arguments as being without merit. The fact that this matters indicates that he has lost the military's support for such an unprovoked war. With only a year left to leave his mark on history, where should he look next?

The recent assassination in Pakistan appears to give Bush the opportunity he's been looking for. The Bush administration has made it clear that they would not allow a terrorist state to get nuclear weapons. If Pakistan's president and longtime U.S. ally, Pervez Musharraf, were to be ousted and a new general comes to power, this would provide Bush the needed pretext for war.

There has been plenty of chatter in the media recently claiming that the Pakistani government and military has become infiltrated with al Qaeda supporters and religious extremists. The idea of loose nukes is getting widespread currency. The conversation begins, all that is missing is a coup or terrorist attack to seal the deal.

Now that the holidays are over, expect something big to occur over the next few weeks. The United States can't really have a war without a dramatic opening act.